Inventory Cuts Stabilize DRAM Prices Amid Declining Trends in Q2 2025

The Memory Market Shake-Up: What You Need to Know

So, here’s the scoop: TrendForce has just dropped some intriguing insights about the memory supply chain, and it looks like U.S. tariff hikes are shaking things up more than we thought. Many downstream brands are hustling to frontload shipments into the first quarter of 2025. This is all part of a strategy to clear out inventory before things get even trickier. But what does this mean for prices and availability? Let’s dive in.

Price Predictions: What’s on the Horizon?

Looking ahead to the second quarter, we’re seeing a mixed bag for DRAM prices. Conventional DRAM is expected to dip just a smidge—around 0-5% quarter-over-quarter. On the flip side, when you factor in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), prices might actually rise by 3-8%. This uptick is largely fueled by a surge in shipments of HBM3E 12hi.

Now, if you’re in the PC game, you might be wondering about the stability of prices. Well, major PC OEMs are pushing their manufacturers to ramp up production, which is leading to quicker depletion of their DRAM inventories. Those OEMs with lower stock levels are likely to ramp up procurement from suppliers in Q2 to secure a steady flow of DRAM for the latter half of 2025. But here’s the kicker: even though Samsung is a bit behind on qualifying HBM, they haven’t shifted much capacity back to conventional DRAM. Meanwhile, SK hynix is keeping its focus on server and mobile DRAM, which means the supply of PC DDR5 is somewhat limited.

Server DRAM: The Demand Surge

Now, let’s talk about server DRAM. The top three North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are ramping up their procurement of general-purpose servers, and there’s a serious push for AI server investment in China. This has led to strong demand for DDR5, but here’s the catch: while suppliers are transitioning some DDR4 capacity to DDR5, the initial supply is still tight. And with nVidia’s B200 and B300 series driving up HBM demand, we’re looking at a bit of a bottleneck in capacity allocation. Expect DDR5 prices to stabilize in Q2, while DDR4 may see smaller-than-expected declines, keeping average contract pricing pretty flat.

Mobile DRAM: A Slight Upswing

In the mobile arena, things are looking a bit brighter. Thanks to China’s smartphone subsidies and a modest uptick in high-end smartphone shipments, mobile DRAM demand is on the rise. The increased consumption of LPDDR5X is a positive sign, even though LPDDR4X supply is plentiful due to aggressive expansion by a Chinese vendor. Prices for LPDDR4X are only expected to slip slightly—around 0-5%. However, LPDDR5X remains in short supply, which is keeping the market sentiment tight and could lead to a projected increase of 0-5% quarter-over-quarter.

Graphics DRAM: Navigating the Landscape

When it comes to graphics DRAM, GDDR7 is stealing the spotlight as demand ramps up for next-gen Graphics Cards. However, GDDR7 prices are likely to remain flat or dip slightly due to supply constraints. Meanwhile, GDDR6 prices could fall by about 3-8%, driven by interest in DeepSeek’s open-source AI model. Major DRAM suppliers are trying to stabilize contract pricing by bundling GDDR6, which could help clear out inventory and prevent further price drops.

Consumer DRAM: A Rebound in Sight

Finally, let’s not overlook the consumer DRAM segment. There’s some good news here, as new infrastructure rollouts—like 4G/5G base stations and fiber upgrades—are expected to gradually boost demand. With healthy inventory levels, we might see more aggressive purchasing, supporting a return to quarter-over-quarter growth. However, DRAM makers are playing it safe in the second half of 2024, cutting back on DDR3 and DDR4 output due to inventory pressures and tepid market demand. As a result, DDR4 contract prices may rise by 0-5% in Q2 2025, while DDR3 prices are likely to stay flat due to lingering overstock issues.

Final Thoughts

So, what’s the takeaway from all this? The memory market is in a state of flux, with various factors influencing prices and supply. Whether you’re a tech enthusiast, a gamer, or just someone looking to upgrade, keeping an eye on these trends will be crucial. As always, stay tuned for more updates as the landscape continues to evolve.

Background Information

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About nVidia:

NVIDIA has firmly established itself as a leader in the realm of client computing, continuously pushing the boundaries of innovation in graphics and AI technologies. With a deep commitment to enhancing user experiences, NVIDIA's client computing business focuses on delivering solutions that power everything from gaming and creative workloads to enterprise applications. for its GeForce graphics cards, the company has redefined high-performance gaming, setting industry standards for realistic visuals, fluid frame rates, and immersive experiences. Complementing its gaming expertise, NVIDIA's Quadro and NVIDIA RTX graphics cards cater to professionals in design, content creation, and scientific fields, enabling real-time ray tracing and AI-driven workflows that elevate productivity and creativity to unprecedented heights. By seamlessly integrating graphics, AI, and software, NVIDIA continues to shape the landscape of client computing, fostering innovation and immersive interactions in a rapidly evolving digital world.

  

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About Samsung:

Samsung, a South Korean multinational conglomerate, has established itself as a global leader in various industries, including electronics, technology, and more. Founded in 1938, Samsung's influence spans from smartphones and consumer electronics to semiconductors and home appliances. With a commitment to innovation, Samsung has contributed products like the Galaxy series of smartphones, QLED TVs, and SSDs that have revolutionized the way we live and work.

  

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About SK hynix:

SK Hynix is a important South Korean semiconductor company known for its innovative contributions to the global technology landscape. Specializing in the production of memory solutions, SK Hynix has played a vital role in shaping the semiconductor industry. With a commitment to research and development, they have continuously pushed the boundaries of memory technology, resulting in products that power various devices and applications.

  

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Technology Explained

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DDR3: DDR3 (double data rate 3) is a type of computer transfer technology that is commonly used in modern computers. It is the successor to the original DDR and DDR2 technologies used to communicate data between the main memory and the CPU (central processing unit). It works by allowing two sets of information to be sent per clock 'tick', which helps to boost overall speed and efficiency. With DDR3, the computer industry has seen a significant increase in speed and performance. DDR3 is used in a variety of computer applications, from gaming to intense data processing and artificial intelligence tasks. It is used in PCs, laptops, and Macs, as well as in tablet technologies like the iPad. It also helps to provide better video streaming and signal data processing in networking. DDR3 is an essential and versatile technology in the modern computer industry.

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DDR4: DDR4 is a generation of Double Data Rate (DDR) dynamic random access memory (RAM) technology. It is a type of RAM that utilizes a higher clock frequency and is more power-efficient than its predecessors. As a result, it is capable of processing data more quickly than other RAM in the computer industry. Its increased speed and power efficiency are beneficial for applications such as gaming, rendering, and machine learning. It is designed for high-performance computing and enables faster access to stored information, resulting in better overall performance for the user. Furthermore, because of its low voltage requirements it requires less power consumption, making it an attractive option for many computer systems. DDR4 is set to become the primary RAM in most computer systems as the industry transitions away from its predecessors.

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DDR5: DDR5 (Double Data Rate 5) is the next generation of memory technology for the computer industry. It is a modern day improvement on earlier DDR technologies, with faster speeds, greater bandwidth and higher capacities. DDR5 enables higher resolution, seamless gaming experiences and faster data transfer rates, making it an ideal choice for high-performance computing and 4K gaming. With its greater RAM compatibility, DDR5 provides faster buffering times and raised clock speeds, giving users an improved overall work system. DDR5 is also optimized for multi-tasking, allowing users to multitask without experiencing a significant drop in performance, increasing the productivity of digital tasks. As an ever-evolving technology, DDR5 is paving the way for the computer industry into a new and powerful era.

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GDDR6: GDDR6 stands for Graphics Double Data Rate 6th generation memory. It is a high performance memory used in graphics cards and graphics processing units (GPUs), specifically targeting gaming, AI and deep learning-related applications. GDDR6 achieves higher bandwidth than previous generations, allowing faster and smoother gaming experience for users. It is also more power efficient, resulting in lower energy consumption overall. The improved power efficiency makes it adaptable to today's needs of thinner laptops and ultra-high definition gaming laptops. Additionally, GDDR6 is used in storage solutions and advanced data center applications to help streamline large amounts of data at lightning-fast speeds.

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GDDR7: GDDR7 (Graphics Double Data Rate 7) is the seventh generation of graphics double data rate (GDDR) memory. It is a type of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) that is specifically designed for use in graphics cards. GDDR7 memory offers a number of advantages over previous generations of GDDR memory. GDDR7 is a significant improvement over previous generations of GDDR memory. It offers faster speeds up to 32 gigabits per second (Gbps) per pin, lower power consumption, and improved error correction. This makes it ideal for use in high-performance graphics cards and other applications that require high bandwidth and low latency.

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HBM3E: HBM3E is the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a type of DRAM that is designed for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. HBM3E offers faster data transfer rates, higher density, and lower power consumption than previous HBM versions. HBM3E is developed by SK Hynix, a South Korean chipmaker, and is expected to enter mass production in 2024. HBM3E can achieve a speed of 1.15 TB/s and a capacity of 64 GB per stack. HBM3E is suitable for AI systems that require large amounts of data processing, such as deep learning, machine learning, and computer vision.

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LPDDR5X: LPDDR5X is a type of computer memory technology that is used in many modern computers. It stands for Low Power Double Data Rate 5X and is a type of Random Access Memory (RAM). It is designed to be more efficient than its predecessors, allowing for faster data transfer speeds and lower power consumption. This makes it ideal for use in laptops, tablets, and other mobile devices. It is also used in gaming consoles and other high-end computers. LPDDR5X is capable of transferring data at up to 8400 megabits per second, making it one of the fastest types of RAM available. This makes it ideal for applications that require high performance, such as gaming, video editing, and 3D rendering.

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