Canalys Forecasts Promising Growth in North American PC Market

Canalys' latest data shows that the US PC market experienced a 6% year-on-year decline in Q2 2023, but with Chromebooks driving demand in the education sector and businesses displaying resilient demand, the market is expected to continue improving in the coming quarters.

US PC shipments experienced a relatively small decline of 6% year-on-year in Q2 2023
Education sector saw a resurgence in demand for Chromebooks
Canalys forecasts a smaller decline of 4% in Q3 2023, followed by a bounce back to 12% growth in Q4

According to the latest data from Canalys, PC shipments in the US experienced a relatively small decline of 6% year-on-year in Q2 2023, reaching a total of 18.2 million units. This represents a significant improvement compared to previous quarters this year. The decline in shipments was primarily driven by a 4% drop in notebook shipments, which totaled 15.2 million units. However, the education sector saw a resurgence in demand for Chromebooks, contributing to the overall stability of the market. On the other hand, desktop shipments suffered a steeper decline of 12%, with a total of 3.0 million units shipped. The tablet market also experienced a modest decline of 5%, with shipments totaling 10.3 million units.

Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys, highlighted the positive signs of improvement in the US PC market during the second quarter. He attributed this improvement to the clearing of channel inventories and pockets of demand strength being reflected in vendors’ shipment performance. One key driver of volume was the return of demand from education institutions, supported by federal funding and the anticipation of a licensing cost increase for ChromeOS. This led to a surge in Chromebook shipments, reaching 4.7 million units, the highest level since the peak deployments in the first half of 2021.

In terms of sectors, PC shipments to the commercial sector experienced a modest decline of just 4%, while the consumer sector saw a larger drop of 10%. Dutt explained that consumers are still prioritizing spending on other goods and services due to economic challenges. Recovery in this segment is expected to emerge in Q4, with strong discounting anticipated during an extended period of holiday season promotions. On the other hand, businesses are displaying more resilient demand for PCs, with Dell being highlighted as a leading commercial vendor in the US.

Looking ahead, Canalys expects the US PC market to continue improving. They forecast a smaller decline of 4% in Q3 2023, followed by a bounce back to 12% growth in Q4. Furthermore, the market is projected to grow by 9% in 2024 and 12% in 2025. Dutt emphasized the positive long-term outlook for PCs in the US, citing the strong fundamentals around post-pandemic PC usage behavior and the larger installed base across all segments. He also mentioned the potential revenue opportunities that will arise from the transition away from Windows 10 and the emergence of AI-capable PCs.

To further explore these topics and more, major PC vendors, channel partners, distributors, and media professionals will gather at the Canalys Forums North America in Palm Springs, California from November 13-15, 2023. The event will provide an opportunity to discuss hot topics such as cloud, cybersecurity, and partner ecosystems, enabling participants to network, gain insights, and shape the future of the industry.

Canalys’ PC Analysis service offers quarterly updated shipment data, providing accurate market sizing, competitive analysis, and growth opportunity identification. The data is granular, guided by a strict methodology, and broken down by market, vendor, and channel, as well as additional splits such as GPU, CPU, storage, and memory. In addition to shipment data, Canalys also publishes quarterly forecasts to help understand the future trajectory and changing landscape of the PC industry.

As an independent analyst company, Canalys aims to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and encourage them to think beyond traditional business models. They deliver smart market insights to IT, channel, and service provider professionals worldwide, relying on the quality of their data, innovative use of technology, and high level of customer service.

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Background Information

About Dell:

Dell is a globally technology leader providing comprehensive solutions in the field of hardware, software, and services. for its customizable computers and enterprise solutions, Dell offers a diverse range of laptops, desktops, servers, and networking equipment. With a commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction, Dell caters to a wide range of consumer and business needs, making it a important player in the tech industry.

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Technology Explained

Chromebook: A Chromebook is a type of laptop computer that runs on Google's Chrome OS operating system, designed for seamless online connectivity and cloud-based computing. These devices are optimized for web-based tasks, relying heavily on Google's suite of apps and services. Chromebooks are known for their fast boot times, ease of use, and security features, such as automatic updates and sandboxing. They often come with limited local storage, as they encourage users to store files and applications in the cloud

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CPU: The Central Processing Unit (CPU) is the brain of a computer, responsible for executing instructions and performing calculations. It is the most important component of a computer system, as it is responsible for controlling all other components. CPUs are used in a wide range of applications, from desktop computers to mobile devices, gaming consoles, and even supercomputers. CPUs are used to process data, execute instructions, and control the flow of information within a computer system. They are also used to control the input and output of data, as well as to store and retrieve data from memory. CPUs are essential for the functioning of any computer system, and their applications in the computer industry are vast.

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GPU: GPU stands for Graphics Processing Unit and is a specialized type of processor designed to handle graphics-intensive tasks. It is used in the computer industry to render images, videos, and 3D graphics. GPUs are used in gaming consoles, PCs, and mobile devices to provide a smooth and immersive gaming experience. They are also used in the medical field to create 3D models of organs and tissues, and in the automotive industry to create virtual prototypes of cars. GPUs are also used in the field of artificial intelligence to process large amounts of data and create complex models. GPUs are becoming increasingly important in the computer industry as they are able to process large amounts of data quickly and efficiently.