AI-Enabled PCs Predicted to Dominate 40% of Global PC Market by 2025

According to a recent forecast by Canalys, the global shipment of AI-capable PCs is expected to reach 48 million units in 2024, accounting for 18% of total PC shipments. This marks the beginning of a significant market transition, with shipments projected to exceed 100 million units in 2025, representing 40% of all PC shipments. By 2028, Canalys predicts that vendors will ship a staggering 205 million AI-capable PCs, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2024 and 2028.

These AI-capable PCs will integrate dedicated AI accelerators like Neural Processing Units (NPUs), unlocking new possibilities for productivity, personalization, and power efficiency. As a result, they are poised to disrupt the PC market and generate substantial value gains for vendors and their partners. Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys, believes that the wider availability of AI-accelerating silicon in personal computing will be transformative, leading to over 150 million AI-capable PCs shipping by the end of 2025. These PCs will enable enhanced user experiences, driving productivity improvements and personalized devices at scale. Additionally, they will offer better power efficiency, stronger security, and reduced costs associated with running AI workloads. This emerging PC category presents exciting opportunities for software developers and hardware vendors to innovate and deliver compelling use cases across consumer, commercial, and education scenarios.

The rapid adoption of AI-capable PCs is expected to drive a moderate increase in the Total Addressable Market (TAM) value of the broader PC market. Canalys Analyst Kieren Jessop suggests that this new category’s enhanced capabilities will create momentum towards premiumization, particularly in the commercial sector. In the short term, Canalys anticipates a 10% to 15% price premium on AI-capable PCs compared to similarly specified PCs without NPU integration. However, as adoption spikes, over half of PCs priced at US$800 and above will be AI-capable by the end of 2025, with this share increasing to over 80% by 2028. Consequently, PC shipments in this price range will account for more than half of the market within four years, boosting the overall value of PC shipments from US$225 billion in 2024 to over US$270 billion in 2028.

Canalys’ latest forecasts highlight the immense potential and far-reaching impact of AI-capable PCs on the industry in the coming years. Vendors that can deliver innovative and differentiated AI-accelerated experiences are poised to gain a significant advantage as this disruptive category becomes mainstream. To delve deeper into the transformative effects of AI on various sectors of the technology industry and channel, refer to Canalys’ comprehensive report titled “Now and next for AI-capable PCs.” This report provides valuable insights into the future of computing paradigms, including category definitions, forecasts, technical considerations, market opportunities, and potential challenges. For a broader understanding of AI’s transformative effects, explore further here.

Technology Explained

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NPU: NPU, or Neural Processing Unit, is a type of specialized processor that is designed to handle complex artificial intelligence tasks. It is inspired by the structure and function of the human brain, with the ability to process and analyze large amounts of data simultaneously. In the computer industry, NPU technology is being used in various applications such as speech recognition, image and video processing, and natural language processing. This allows computers to perform tasks that were previously only possible for humans, making them more efficient and intelligent. NPU technology is also being integrated into smartphones, self-driving cars, and other devices, making them smarter and more responsive to user needs. With the increasing demand for AI-driven technology, the use of NPU is expected to grow and revolutionize the way we interact with computers in the future.