Notebook Market Set to Rebound Globally in 2024 with 2-5% Yearly Shipment Growth

TrendForce reports that Q2 notebook shipments experienced a 21.6% quarterly growth, driven by strong demand for mid and low-tier consumer models, but the overall number of units shipped in the first half of the year is down 23.5% compared to the previous year.

Q2 notebook shipments experienced a significant 21.6% quarterly growth, totaling 42.52 million units.
Windows 10 is set to end its support in October 2025, which is expected to drive business device upgrades starting in 2024.
Southeast Asia forecasts an upward trend in shipments, indicating modest growth in consumer-focused devices.

According to a recent report by TrendForce, the notebook inventory channels in the second quarter of the year are showing healthy levels. Both North America and the Asia-Pacific regions are displaying a strong appetite for mid and low-tier consumer models. This increase in demand is not just a result of restocking efforts, but rather a strategic move to prepare for the expected back-to-school wave in the third quarter. Interestingly, just as Google was about to introduce licensing fees, Chromebook shipments reached a peak, driving Q2 notebook shipments to a significant 21.6% quarterly growth, totaling 42.52 million units. However, when looking at the bigger picture, the overall number of units shipped in the first half of the year is down 23.5% compared to the previous year.

TrendForce also points out that the growth momentum for the second half of 2023 will heavily rely on the purchasing power of end consumers. However, due to the uncertain economic outlook in the two major notebook markets, the US and Europe, the typical seasonal purchasing demand is subdued. Additionally, some of this demand has already been met in Q2. As a result, Q3 notebook shipments are expected to experience a moderate growth of 3.8%, reaching a total of 44.13 million units. The annual notebook shipments for the year are projected to reach 163 million units, representing a YoY decline of 12.2%.

Looking ahead to 2024, the tech industry appears promising. As market inventories align with healthier metrics and anticipated inflationary pressures stabilize, global notebook shipments have the potential for a rebound. However, it’s important to note that the global consumer environment is still feeling the effects of the pandemic, and while demand is gradually increasing, the market has not yet shown strong signs of recovery. TrendForce predicts an annual growth rate between 2-5% for 2024, pushing shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels. After inventory adjustments, the broader market is expected to experience a gentle recovery. However, all eyes are on China and the US, the twin giants of consumer markets, to determine if a more robust shipment surge can be anticipated.

In the latter half of this year, the absence of seasonal market activity combined with subdued demand has not only impacted corporate profitability but has also created challenges for budgeting in the upcoming year. Additionally, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and the focus on its foundational infrastructure may divert attention and resources away from IT expenditures. Although Windows 10 is set to end its support in October 2025, which is expected to drive business device upgrades starting in 2024, TrendForce believes that the momentum and urgency of this upgrade wave might be delayed and subdued, making significant shipment growth less likely.

On the consumer demand front, China faces challenges due to a subdued economic and employment environment, which casts a somewhat pessimistic view on its market development. In contrast, the US experienced a strong rebound in demand in 2023 but is expected to see more tempered growth in 2024. Europe, after undergoing a two-year demand recalibration, may witness a resurgence in consumer demand in the latter half of the year if the broader economic climate improves. Finally, Southeast Asia, driven by a growing consumer segment, forecasts an upward trend in shipments, indicating modest growth in consumer-focused devices.

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Chromebook: A Chromebook is a type of laptop computer that runs on Google's Chrome OS operating system, designed for seamless online connectivity and cloud-based computing. These devices are optimized for web-based tasks, relying heavily on Google's suite of apps and services. Chromebooks are known for their fast boot times, ease of use, and security features, such as automatic updates and sandboxing. They often come with limited local storage, as they encourage users to store files and applications in the cloud