NAND Flash Prices May Rebound in Late 2025 Amid Supplier Cuts and AI Needs

CES Las Vegas

NAND Flash Market: A Rollercoaster Ride

The world of NAND Flash storage is a bit like a rollercoaster these days—lots of ups and downs, and right now, it seems we’re in a dip. According to the latest insights from TrendForce, the first quarter of 2025 is seeing an oversupply of NAND Flash, which is pushing prices down and squeezing suppliers. But don’t pack away your optimism just yet; there’s a silver lining on the horizon. TrendForce believes that the second half of the year could bring a turnaround, thanks to a few key factors.

What’s Causing the Shift?

So, what’s behind this potential market recovery? Well, manufacturers are starting to take proactive steps by cutting production. They’ve realized that the oversupply situation isn’t just a bump in the road—it’s a serious issue. Since 2023, the growth expectations for NAND Flash demand have been slashed from a hopeful 30% down to a more realistic 10-15%. This means suppliers are scrambling to adjust their strategies to avoid prolonged price declines.

As we move into 2025, these manufacturers are not just talking the talk; they’re walking the walk with decisive production cuts. They’re scaling back their output for the year to curb the growth of bit supply. This is all part of a broader strategy to balance the market and set the stage for a price recovery.

Smartphone Sales and Trade-In Subsidies

Let’s not forget about the smartphone sector, which is a huge player in the NAND Flash game. China has rolled out some enticing trade-in subsidy policies that kicked in during the fourth quarter of 2024, and they’re already making waves. These incentives are boosting smartphone sales and helping to clear out existing NAND Flash inventories. As prices stabilize and perhaps even begin to rise, smartphone brands might see this as the perfect moment to stock up on low-cost inventory, further driving demand.

AI: The Game Changer

Now, let’s talk about AI—yes, that buzzword that seems to be everywhere. nVidia is gearing up to ramp up shipments of its Blackwell-series products later this year, which is expected to create a surge in enterprise SSD demand. But that’s not all. DeepSeek is making strides in reducing the costs of deploying AI servers, which could empower small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to harness the power of AI more effectively. With SSDs boasting capacities over 30 TB becoming the go-to choice for these businesses, we’re looking at a significant boost in demand for enterprise SSDs.

And if that wasn’t enough, NVIDIA is also unveiling Project Digits at CES, showcasing systems equipped with 4 TB SSDs. This is set to accelerate AI adoption in personal computing, leading to even greater demand for high-capacity PC SSDs. Imagine a world where AI-powered PCs and workstations are the norm—this could change the game for everyday applications and drive long-term growth in the client SSD market.

The Future of AI-Enabled Smartphones

On the smartphone front, DeepSeek is again in the spotlight, this time for its breakthroughs in reducing computational power requirements. This innovation could pave the way for more widespread adoption of AI-enabled smartphones. As QLC storage technology becomes increasingly common in mobile devices, we can expect a surge in demand for AI smartphone storage. Why? Because users will want devices that can deliver enhanced functionality and performance—something that’s becoming non-negotiable in today’s tech landscape.

In summary, while the NAND Flash market is currently navigating some rough waters, there’s a lot to be hopeful about. With strategic production cuts, a boost in smartphone sales, and the ever-growing influence of AI, we might just see a brighter future for NAND Flash as we head into the latter half of 2025. So, stay tuned—this is one tech story that’s just getting started!

Background Information

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About nVidia:

NVIDIA has firmly established itself as a leader in the realm of client computing, continuously pushing the boundaries of innovation in graphics and AI technologies. With a deep commitment to enhancing user experiences, NVIDIA's client computing business focuses on delivering solutions that power everything from gaming and creative workloads to enterprise applications. for its GeForce graphics cards, the company has redefined high-performance gaming, setting industry standards for realistic visuals, fluid frame rates, and immersive experiences. Complementing its gaming expertise, NVIDIA's Quadro and NVIDIA RTX graphics cards cater to professionals in design, content creation, and scientific fields, enabling real-time ray tracing and AI-driven workflows that elevate productivity and creativity to unprecedented heights. By seamlessly integrating graphics, AI, and software, NVIDIA continues to shape the landscape of client computing, fostering innovation and immersive interactions in a rapidly evolving digital world.

  

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Event Info

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About CES:

CES, the Consumer Electronics Show, is an annual event held in Las Vegas, Nevada, organized by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA). With a history dating back to 1967, it has become the world's premier platform for unveiling and exploring the latest innovations in consumer electronics and technology. Drawing exhibitors ranging from industry titans to startups across diverse sectors, including automotive, health and wellness, robotics, gaming, and artificial intelligence, CES transforms Las Vegas into a global tech hub, offering a glimpse into the future of technology through a wide array of showcases, from startup-focused Eureka Park to cutting-edge automotive and health tech exhibitions.

  

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Technology Explained

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Blackwell: Blackwell is an AI computing architecture designed to supercharge tasks like training large language models. These powerful GPUs boast features like a next-gen Transformer Engine and support for lower-precision calculations, enabling them to handle complex AI workloads significantly faster and more efficiently than before. While aimed at data centers, the innovations within Blackwell are expected to influence consumer graphics cards as well

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NAND: NAND technology is a type of non-volatile memory that is used in many computer applications. It is a type of flash memory that is used to store data in a non-volatile manner, meaning that the data is not lost when the power is turned off. NAND technology is used in many computer applications, such as solid-state drives, USB flash drives, digital cameras, and memory cards. It is also used in many embedded systems, such as cell phones, tablets, and other consumer electronics. NAND technology is a reliable and cost-effective way to store data, making it a popular choice for many computer applications.

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SSD: A Solid State Drive (SSD) is a modern data storage device that employs flash memory technology to store data electronically. Unlike traditional hard disk drives (HDDs), SSDs have no moving parts, resulting in significantly faster read and write speeds. This leads to quicker boot times, faster application loading, and smoother overall system performance. SSDs are known for their durability, shock resistance, and energy efficiency, making them ideal for laptops, ultrabooks, and other portable devices. They come in various form factors, including 2.5-inch, M.2, and PCIe cards, and are favored for their reliability, quiet operation, and reduced heat generation

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