China’s PC Market Expected to Shrink by 1% in 2024, Bounce Back by 12% in 2025

The PC market in Mainland China is facing a slight contraction, with a forecasted 1% decline in 2024, according to the latest data from Canalys. This comes after a sharp decline in the first quarter of the year, with shipments down 12%. It’s interesting to note that this decline is in contrast to the global market, which has returned to growth.

While notebook shipments are expected to drop by 5%, desktop shipments are predicted to perform well in 2024, with a projected growth of 10% annually. This growth can be attributed to the commercial sector refresh demand, especially from large state-held enterprises and local governments. On the other hand, demand from consumers and the private sector is expected to remain cautious, leading to a decline in notebook shipments.

It’s worth mentioning that China’s PC market trajectory is diverging from global trends in its recovery journey. In Q1 2024, the commercial sector experienced a significant decline of 19% due to weak IT spending by large enterprises. Consumer shipments, on the other hand, saw a milder decline of 8%. Despite the muted performance in 2024, there are significant local developments that point to a stronger market in 2025, with an expected growth of 12% in PC shipments.

One of these developments is the Xinchuang community, which focuses on developing a domestic ecosystem across components, software, hardware, and more. Emma Xu, an analyst at Canalys, explains that the maturation of this community has resulted in clearer standards and rules, shaping robust ecosystem dynamics within the value chain. This initiative is now poised to penetrate local governments and extend its reach into sectors such as finance, telecommunications, energy, healthcare, and education. AI capabilities in hardware and software will play a central role in this growth. Industry stakeholders need to align their products and services with this emerging trend to remain competitive.

AI is not only a significant catalyst for the PC market but also for the tablet segment, which has seen a surge in demand. While notebooks and desktops experienced declines of 13% and 11% respectively, the tablet market saw a remarkable growth of 22% in the first quarter. This growth can be attributed to enthusiastic demand for devices aimed at children and local smartphone vendors eyeing device ecosystem opportunities.

Huawei, for example, has broadened its reach in the tablet market by offering both lower-priced options with the MatePad SE series and premium options with the MatePad Pro series. Other vendors are also driving adoption by introducing new devices and applications that support productivity, such as recording, translation, and note-taking. The education market is also a hotbed for competition and innovations, with vendors developing tailored AI models for learning applications.

In this increasingly competitive landscape, innovation across hardware and software is crucial. However, the ability of vendors to leverage these innovations and integrate them across device ecosystems to deliver compelling experiences and user benefits will be even more critical. For PC and tablet vendors in China, this will require identifying and capitalizing on localization opportunities and favorable AI innovation policies within the market.