DRAM and NAND Flash Prices to Rise in Q2, Boosting Tech Industry

TrendForce predicts an increase in contract prices for DRAM and NAND Flash in the second quarter, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 13-18% and NAND Flash prices by 15-20%, while eMMC/UFS will only see a smaller increase of around 10%, due to subdued demand outside of AI applications and concerns about potential crowding out effects on HBM capacity.

Expected increase in contract prices for DRAM and NAND Flash
Strategic stock increase by buyers to prepare for potential HBM shortages
Shift in preference towards QLC enterprise SSDs, driving up demand

According to the latest forecasts from TrendForce, the second quarter will see an increase in contract prices for DRAM and NAND Flash. DRAM prices are expected to rise by 13-18%, while NAND Flash prices will see a slightly higher increase of 15-20%. However, eMMC/UFS will only experience a smaller price increase of around 10%.

Before the earthquake on April 3rd, TrendForce had initially predicted a more modest rise in contract prices for DRAM and NAND Flash. However, spot price indicators showed a weakening price momentum and reduced transaction volumes, primarily due to subdued demand outside of AI applications. This lack of recovery in demand for notebooks and smartphones, along with increasing inventory levels among PC OEMs, contributed to the lower initial forecasts.

Following the earthquake, there were reports of PC OEM suppliers accepting significant increases in DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices due to special considerations. However, these were isolated transactions and not representative of the overall market. After a new round of contract price negotiations in late April, the increases turned out to be larger than initially expected. This revision reflects both the buyers’ desire to support the value of their inventories and considerations of supply and demand prospects for the AI market.

TrendForce also reports that manufacturers are concerned about potential crowding out effects on HBM capacity. Samsung’s HBM3E products, which use the 1alpha process node, are projected to utilize about 60% of this capacity by the end of 2024. This significant allocation is expected to put pressure on DDR5 suppliers, especially as HBM3e production increases in the third quarter. As a result, buyers are strategically increasing their stock in the second quarter to prepare for anticipated HBM shortages in the future.

In the realm of AI inference servers, energy efficiency is becoming increasingly important. North American CSPs are now favoring QLC enterprise SSDs as their preferred storage solutions. This shift in preference is driving up demand for QLC enterprise SSDs and causing rapid inventory depletion among some suppliers. Consequently, these suppliers are hesitant to sell their remaining stock. Additionally, due to the uncertain recovery in consumer product demand, suppliers are generally cautious about making capital investments in non-HBM wafer capacities, particularly for NAND Flash, which is currently priced at the breakeven point.

About Our Team

Our team comprises industry insiders with extensive experience in computers, semiconductors, games, and consumer electronics. With decades of collective experience, we’re committed to delivering timely, accurate, and engaging news content to our readers.

Background Information

About Samsung:

Samsung, a South Korean multinational conglomerate, has established itself as a global leader in various industries, including electronics, technology, and more. Founded in 1938, Samsung's influence spans from smartphones and consumer electronics to semiconductors and home appliances. With a commitment to innovation, Samsung has contributed products like the Galaxy series of smartphones, QLED TVs, and SSDs that have revolutionized the way we live and work.

Latest Articles about Samsung

Technology Explained

DDR5: DDR5 (Double Data Rate 5) is the next generation of memory technology for the computer industry. It is a modern day improvement on earlier DDR technologies, with faster speeds, greater bandwidth and higher capacities. DDR5 enables higher resolution, seamless gaming experiences and faster data transfer rates, making it an ideal choice for high-performance computing and 4K gaming. With its greater RAM compatibility, DDR5 provides faster buffering times and raised clock speeds, giving users an improved overall work system. DDR5 is also optimized for multi-tasking, allowing users to multitask without experiencing a significant drop in performance, increasing the productivity of digital tasks. As an ever-evolving technology, DDR5 is paving the way for the computer industry into a new and powerful era.

Latest Articles about DDR5

HBM3E: HBM3E is the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a type of DRAM that is designed for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. HBM3E offers faster data transfer rates, higher density, and lower power consumption than previous HBM versions. HBM3E is developed by SK Hynix, a South Korean chipmaker, and is expected to enter mass production in 2024. HBM3E can achieve a speed of 1.15 TB/s and a capacity of 64 GB per stack. HBM3E is suitable for AI systems that require large amounts of data processing, such as deep learning, machine learning, and computer vision.

Latest Articles about HBM3E

NAND: NAND technology is a type of non-volatile memory that is used in many computer applications. It is a type of flash memory that is used to store data in a non-volatile manner, meaning that the data is not lost when the power is turned off. NAND technology is used in many computer applications, such as solid-state drives, USB flash drives, digital cameras, and memory cards. It is also used in many embedded systems, such as cell phones, tablets, and other consumer electronics. NAND technology is a reliable and cost-effective way to store data, making it a popular choice for many computer applications.